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Super El Niño and Your Grocery Bill
超级厄尔尼诺现象冲击食品价格
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Super El Niño and Your Grocery Bill
超级厄尔尼诺现象冲击食品价格
目前正出现“超级厄尔尼诺”现象，预计到 2028 年，全球食品价格将因此大幅上涨。这一气象现象伴随着极端的酷暑和洪涝，使农作物生长环境变得异常恶劣。专家警告称，此次事件可能导致食品价格飙升 15.8%，农业产量下降约 14.3%。随着小麦、大米等必需作物减产，未来几年我们的生活成本也将受到巨大影响。
A "Super" El Niño weather cycle is forming right now,
目前正出现“超级”厄尔尼诺现象。weather cycle 气象周期 / forming 正在形成
and experts say it could trigger a global food price shock until 2028.
专家警告称，到 2028 年，全球食品价格可能会大幅飙升。trigger 诱发 / global food price shock 全球食品价格冲击
The U.S. weather agency, NOAA, says there is a 63% chance that
美国国家海洋和大气管理局 (NOAA) 预测，发生这种情况的概率为 63%。weather agency 气象局 / 63% chance 63% 的概率
ocean temperatures will rise 2 degrees Celsius above normal.
海平面温度将比常年高出 2 摄氏度。ocean temperatures 海面温度 / rise 2 degrees Celsius 上升 2 摄氏度 / above normal 高于常年
This "Godzilla" weather event will bring extreme heatwaves and floods.
这场“哥斯拉”级气象事件将带来极端的酷暑和洪涝。weather event 气象事件 / extreme heatwaves 极端酷暑 / floods 洪水
This is bad news for your grocery bill.
这对家庭开支来说是个坏消息。bad news 坏消息 / grocery bill 账单物价 (买菜开支)
Goldman Sachs says that global food prices could jump
高盛集团预计，全球食品价格可能会大幅跳涨。global food prices 全球食品价格 / jump 飙升
by 15.8% because of these extreme weather conditions.
受这些极端天气影响，物价可能会上涨 15.8%。extreme weather conditions 极端天气情况
We are already seeing the impact in places like India,
在印度等地，这种影响已经开始显现。already seeing 已经显现 / impact 影响
where some areas have only received 25% of their usual rain.
部分地区的降水量仅为平时的 25%。some areas 部分地区 / received 25% 仅达到 25% / usual rain 平时降水量
This is hurting harvests for daily basics like wheat, rice, and sugar.
这直接影响了小麦、大米和食糖等日常必需作物的收成。hurting harvests 损害收成 / daily basics 日常必需品
The war in Iran is also making energy and fertilizer more expensive.
受伊朗战争影响，能源和化肥的价格也在不断上涨。war in Iran 伊朗战争 / fertilizer 化肥 / more expensive 变得更贵
This "double shock" makes it much harder for farmers to grow food.
这种“双重打击”使农民种植粮食变得更加艰难。double shock 双重冲击 / much harder 更加艰难 / grow food 种植粮食
Analysts at UniCredit warn that farm production will drop by 14.3%.
裕信银行的分析师警告称，农业产量将下降 14.3%。Analysts 分析师 / farm production 农业生产 / drop by 14.3% 下降 14.3%
This will cost the world 342 billion dollars in lost food output.
这将导致全球粮食减产损失达 3420 亿美元。cost the world 全球损失 / 342 billion dollars 3420 亿美元 / lost food output 粮食产量损失
Because it takes time for crops to grow and travel to stores,
由于作物生长及其运输至商店需要时间，takes time 需要时间 / crops to grow 作物生长 / travel to stores 运输至商店
we won't feel the full effect of these high prices until the middle of 2028.
直到 2028 年年中，我们才能完全感受到高物价带来的冲击。feel the full effect 全面感受到影响 / high prices 高物价 / middle of 2028 2028 年年中
Quiz 🧠
Q1. When extreme weather damages farm crops, do global food prices usually go up?
查看答案
✅ True
异常气候导致农作物减产、粮食短缺，价格就会随之上涨。
Bad weather damages crops, so there is less food. When supply drops, prices rise.
Q2. What does 'jump' mean in 'food prices jump'?
查看答案
✅ Increase quickly
'jump'是指数值或价格突然大幅上涨。
To jump means to rise or increase by a large amount very quickly.
Q3. When farmers face severe droughts and high fertilizer costs, what usually happens to food production?
查看答案
✅ It decreases
干旱与高昂的化肥成本让农作物难以大量种植，导致产量减少。
Without enough rain and affordable fertilizer, farmers cannot grow as many crops.
Dialogue 🎧
Michael: Emma, did you see the news about the 'Godzilla' weather? It sounds like a movie.
Michael: 艾玛，你看到关于“哥斯拉”级天气的报道了吗？听起来像是什么电影名字。
Emma: Oh, the Super El Niño! Experts are saying it's going to be historically strong this time.
Emma: 啊，你是说超级厄尔尼诺吧！专家说这次可能是历史上最强的一次。
Michael: 'Godzilla' is such a scary name for a weather cycle. Why call it that?
Michael: 把气象现象叫做“哥斯拉”，这名字也太吓人了吧。为什么要这么叫呢？
Emma: It's because ocean temperatures might rise 2 degrees Celsius above the normal average.
Emma: 是因为海平面温度可能会比平均水平高出 2 度之多。
Michael: Two degrees doesn't sound like much to me. Is that really a big deal?
Michael: 2 度看起来差别不大啊，真的有那么严重吗？
Emma: For the ocean, it's huge! NOAA says there is a 63% chance of it happening.
Emma: 对海洋来说，这可是个天文数字！美国国家海洋和大气管理局 (NOAA) 说这种情况发生的概率高达 63%。
Michael: Those odds are terrifying. Especially with all the heatwaves and floods they expect.
Michael: 这概率确实够吓人的。尤其是还预报会有极端酷暑和洪灾。
Emma: It is very bad news for our grocery bills. The impact is going to be massive.
Emma: 对我们的菜篮子来说也是个坏消息。影响会非常巨大。
Michael: Ugh, I am already struggling with rent. Don't tell me my food is next.
Michael: 唉，我交房租已经很吃力了，别再跟我提食品涨价的事了。
Emma: I'm serious. Goldman Sachs predicts global food prices will jump by 15.8% soon.
Emma: 这可不是开玩笑。高盛预测，全球食品价格很快就会飙升 15.8%。
Michael: Fifteen percent? That is a massive hit to every family's bank account.
Michael: 15%？那对所有家庭的经济状况来说都是沉重的打击啊。
Emma: It will affect daily basics like wheat, rice, and sugar harvests everywhere.
Emma: 小麦、大米、食糖这些生活必需品的收成都会受到全球性的影响。
Michael: Wait, isn't India already seeing that with the low monsoon rain?
Michael: 等一下，印度不是已经因为季风降水不足而头疼了吗？
Emma: Yes! Some areas there have only received 25% of their usual rainfall so far.
Emma: 没错！部分地区目前的降水量仅为往年同期的 25%。
Michael: And the war in Iran is making energy and fertilizer more expensive too.
Michael: 再加上伊朗战争，能源和化肥价格也在上涨。
Emma: Right. Analysts are calling it a 'double shock' for farmers trying to grow crops.
Emma: 是的。分析师认为，对于想要种粮的农民来说，这简直是“双重打击”。
Michael: UniCredit thinks global farm production will drop by 14.3% because of all this.
Michael: 裕信银行预计，受此综合影响，全球农业产量将缩减 14.3%。
Emma: That sounds like a massive amount of lost food. It's really hard to imagine.
Emma: 那损失的粮食得有多少啊。简直不敢想象。
Michael: It totals 342 billion dollars in lost output. That is a lot of money.
Michael: 据说总损失额将达到 3420 亿美元，真是笔巨款。
Emma: So, are we going to see these higher prices at the store tomorrow?
Emma: 那我们明天去超市就能看到涨价了吗？
Michael: Not yet. We won't feel the full effect of this until the middle of 2028.
Michael: 还没那么快。要到 2028 年中期，我们才会彻底感受到那种影响。
Emma: 2028? That is a long time to wait for a 'Godzilla' to go away.
Emma: 2028 年？要等那只“哥斯拉”消失，时间也太长了点。