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World is Shrinking Fast
人口缩减时代
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World is Shrinking Fast
人口缩减时代
2023年是人类历史上的一个重要转折点，全球生育率首次降至维持人口规模稳定所需的水平以下。由于价值观的转变、女性更多地步入职场以及受教育年限延长带来的经济压力，全球出生率正呈现急剧下降的态势。特别是韩国，去年的出生人数仅为23万，远低于专家此前预期的35万。照此趋势发展，到2055年前后，全球人口将开始实质性萎缩，我们的社会结构也将随之发生根本性变革。
In 2023, something big happened for the first time in history.
2023年，历史上发生了一件具有里程碑意义的大事。something big 特别的事 / for the first time 首次 / in history 历史上
The global fertility rate fell below the replacement level.
全球总和生育率已降至维持人口稳定所需的水平以下。global fertility rate 全球生育率 / fell below 降至……以下 / replacement level 人口更替水平
Humans are no longer having enough babies to keep populations steady.
人类生育的孩子已不足以维持现有人口规模。no longer 不再 / keep populations steady 维持人口稳定
This trend is happening much faster than anyone predicted.
这一趋势的进展速度远超任何人的预期。This trend 这一趋势 / much faster 快得多 / anyone predicted 任何人预测
Why is this happening everywhere, all at once?
为什么这种现象会在全球范围内同时发生？happening everywhere 随处发生 / all at once 同时
Experts say social norms are changing very quickly.
专家表示，社会规范正在发生极速转变。Experts say 专家说 / social norms 社会规范 / changing quickly 快速改变
Phones and social media make people see the world differently.
智能手机和社交媒体改变了人们看待世界的方式。social media 社交媒体 / see the world 看世界 / differently 不同地
Many women now choose careers over traditional home life.
许多女性现在选择事业而非传统的家庭生活。choose careers 选择事业 / traditional home life 传统家庭生活
Modern service jobs make it easier for women to work.
现代服务业岗位让女性参与经济活动变得更加容易。Modern service jobs 现代服务业岗位 / make it easier 让……更容易 / women to work 女性工作
Also, people stay in school much longer than before.
此外，人们接受教育的时间比以往任何时候都要长。stay in school 学业持续 / much longer 长的多 / than before 比以前
This educational race makes starting families very expensive.
这种教育竞争使得组建家庭的经济成本变得非常昂贵。educational race 教育竞争 / starting families 组建家庭 / very expensive 非常昂贵
In South Korea, births were far lower than experts guessed.
韩国的出生人数远低于专家的预测。far lower 远低于 / experts guessed 专家预测
They expected 350,000 babies, but only 230,000 were born.
专家原预计有35万名婴儿出生，但实际仅有23万名。expected 预期的 / only 230,000 born 仅23万出生
Most countries now fall below the 2.1 birth rate needed.
目前大多数国家的生育率都低于所需的2.1基准值。fall below 低于 / birth rate needed 所需出生率
By 2055, the total world population will likely start shrinking.
到2055年前后，世界人口很可能开始萎缩。total world population 全球总人口 / likely 可能 / start shrinking 开始萎缩
This change will reshape how our whole society works.
这一转变将重塑我们整个社会的运作方式。reshape 重塑 / whole society 整个社会 / works 运作
Our future world will look different with fewer people.
人口减少的未来世界将与现在截然不同。look different 看起来不同 / fewer people 更少的人
It is a new, uncertain chapter for humanity.
对人类而言，一个充满不确定性的新篇章已经开启。uncertain chapter 不确定的篇章 / for humanity 对人类而言
Quiz 🧠
Q1. If a country's birth rate stays very low, its population will eventually get smaller.
查看答案
✅ True
若出生率持续走低，随着时间的推移，总人口数量自然会逐渐减少。
When fewer babies are born than people dying, the total population naturally shrinks over time.
Q2. What does 'shrinking' mean in 'the shrinking population'?
查看答案
✅ getting smaller
'Shrink'表示大小或数量逐渐减少、变小。
To shrink means to become smaller in size, amount, or number.
Q3. Why do many young adults today delay having children?
查看答案
✅ Longer education and high costs
随着受教育年限的延长和育儿成本的增加，人们组建家庭的时间也随之推迟。
People spend more years studying, which makes starting a career and a family take longer and cost more.
Dialogue 🎧
Olivia: James, did you see the news about 2023? It was a unique year in human history.
Olivia: 詹姆斯，你看关于2023年的新闻了吗？据说那是人类历史上非常特别的一年。
James: Really? Why was it so special?
James: 真的吗？为什么那一年的意义这么重大？
Olivia: For the first time, the global fertility rate fell below the replacement level.
Olivia: 因为那是历史上全球总和生育率首次降至替代水平以下。
James: Hold on. What does the replacement level actually mean?
James: 等等，“替代水平”具体是指什么意思？
Olivia: It is the number of babies needed to keep the population steady.
Olivia: 简单来说，就是为了维持人口规模稳定所需出生的婴儿数量。
James: So we are no longer having enough babies?
James: 所以你的意思是，现在出生的宝宝已经不足以维持现有人口数了？
Olivia: Exactly. To stay steady, we need every woman to have 2.1 kids on average.
Olivia: 没错。为了保持人口稳定，平均每位女性需要生育2.1个孩子。
James: Why 2.1? Why isn't it just 2.0?
James: 为什么是2.1个呢？2.0个不行吗？
Olivia: More boys are born than girls. Not all girls live to become mothers themselves.
Olivia: 因为男婴的出生率通常略高于女婴，而且并不是所有女性都能平安长大并成为母亲。
James: That is wild. I didn't know it was falling that fast.
James: 天哪。我真没意识到下降得这么快。
Olivia: It is accelerating faster than practically anybody predicted.
Olivia: 事实上，它的加速过程超出了所有专家的预料。
James: Why is it happening everywhere all at once?
James: 为什么这种现象会在全世界同步发生呢？
Olivia: Experts believe social norms are changing very quickly.
Olivia: 专家认为这是因为社会规范正在飞速转变。
James: Is it because of technology and smartphones?
James: 是受技术或智能手机的影响吗？
Olivia: Yes. Social media makes people see the world differently.
Olivia: 是的，社交媒体彻底改变了人们观察世界的视角。
James: I read that people are also too anxious about the future.
James: 我也读到过一些文章，说人们对未来感到非常不安。
Olivia: Many women now choose careers over traditional home life.
Olivia: 现在的确有很多女性比起传统的家庭生活，更倾向于追求事业。
James: Modern service jobs make it easier for women to work too.
James: 现代服务业的兴起也让女性就业变得更加方便了。
Olivia: True. But this educational race makes starting a family very expensive.
Olivia: 没错。但随着教育竞争日益激烈，组建家庭的成本也变得极其高昂。
James: Look at South Korea. Their birth numbers are shocking.
James: 看看韩国就知道了。那里的出生人数真的让人震惊。
Olivia: They expected 350,000 babies last year. Only 230,000 were born.
Olivia: 去年专家预测会有35万人出生，但实际只有23万人。
James: No way. When will the total world population start shrinking?
James: 太不可思议了。那全球人口什么时候会开始减少呢？
Olivia: Likely by 2055. This will reshape how our whole society works.
Olivia: 大约在2055年前后。这将会重塑我们整个社会的运作模式。
James: It really is a new, uncertain chapter for humanity.
James: 对人类来说，这确实是一个充满不确定性的新时代的开端。