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Are Prediction Markets Investments or Gambling?
预测市场是投资还是赌博？
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Are Prediction Markets Investments or Gambling?
预测市场是投资还是赌博？
关于预测市场究竟算合法投资还是纯粹的赌博，美国两家联邦上诉法院给出了截然相反的判决。一家法院将其认定为金融产品，另一家法院却裁定其本质只是体育博彩，应受赌博法律规制。随着交易规模飙升至数百亿美元，且海外多个国家也接连出台封禁措施，这一争议最终或将由美国最高法院作出终审裁决。
Are prediction markets real investments, or are they just online gambling?
预测市场究竟是真正的投资，还是单纯的线上赌博？prediction markets 预测市场 / online gambling 线上赌博
Two major American appeals courts are now completely divided on this question.
在这个问题上，美国两家主要上诉法院的意见完全针锋相对。appeals courts 上诉法院 / completely divided 完全分歧
In April, one court ruled that sports contracts are legal financial products.
今年4月，一家法院裁定体育合约属于合法的金融产品。ruled that 裁定 / financial products 金融产品
However, on August 28, another federal appeals court rejected that idea.
然而在8月28日，另一家联邦上诉法院却推翻了这一观点。federal appeals court 联邦上诉法院 / rejected 驳回，拒绝
The judges ruled that betting on a sports team is still an ordinary wager.
法官们裁定，押注运动队输赢依然只是普通的下注行为。betting on 押注 / ordinary wager 普通的下注
They said that calling a bet a contract does not change what it really is.
他们指出，把打赌改称为合约，并不能改变其本质。calling a bet 称为打赌 / does not change 无法改变
Because of this ruling, the state of Nevada can enforce its gambling laws.
由于这项裁决，内华达州得以继续执行其赌博监管法律。ruling 裁决 / enforce laws 执行法律
The financial stakes in this legal fight are enormous.
这场法律较量中所涉及的经济利益极其庞大。financial stakes 经济利益，涉及的金额 / legal fight 法律较量
One major US exchange, Kalshi, approached 50 billion dollars in yearly trading.
美国大型交易所 Kalshi 的年交易额已逼近500亿美元。approached 逼近 / yearly trading 年交易额
Kalshi argues that federal regulators watch over it,
Kalshi 方面主张，由于自身受到联邦监管机构的监督，regulators 监管机构 / watch over 监督，照看
so local gambling laws cannot reach its products.
因此地方州的赌博法律管辖不到其产品。gambling laws 赌博法律 / cannot reach 触及不到
This same battle is now unfolding across the Atlantic.
同样的纷争如今也蔓延到了大西洋彼岸的欧洲。unfolding 展开，蔓延 / across the Atlantic 大西洋彼岸
Countries like France and Italy have already blocked access to these platforms.
法国和意大利等国已经屏蔽了这些平台的访问权限。blocked access 屏蔽了访问 / platforms 平台
Regulators warn that all-or-nothing bets are dangerous for everyday savers.
监管机构警告称，这种非赢即输的押注对普通储户来说十分危险。all-or-nothing bets 非赢即输的押注 / everyday savers 普通储户
Now, the US Supreme Court must step in to settle the American conflict.
如今，美国联邦最高法院必须亲自出面平息这场纠纷。step in 介入 / settle the conflict 解决冲突
Meanwhile, European officials are deciding if event bets are actually gambling.
与此同时，欧洲官员也在定夺这类事件押注到底算不算赌博。deciding 正在决定 / event bets 事件押注
Quiz 🧠
Q1. When lower appeals courts disagree on a law, a supreme court usually settles the dispute.
查看答案
✅ True
最高法院是最高级别的司法机构，因此当下级法院判决相互冲突时，通常由其作出最终裁决。
The supreme court is the highest court, so it resolves conflicts when lower courts make opposite rulings.
Q2. What does 'wager' mean in 'place a wager'?
查看答案
✅ a bet
'wager' 指就某项比赛或事件的结果押注金钱的'打赌'或'赌注'。
A wager is money risked on an uncertain outcome, which is another word for a bet.
Q3. European regulators blocked all-or-nothing prediction betting sites. What was their main goal?
查看答案
✅ Protecting everyday savers
监管机构旨在保护普通民众的钱财，避免他们受到非赢即输的高风险押注危害。
Officials worry that all-or-nothing bets act like gambling and cause regular people to lose money quickly.
Dialogue 🎧
James: Emma, is betting on a football game suddenly a Wall Street investment now?
James: Emma，押注一场足球比赛现在居然成华尔街投资了？
Emma: Believe it or not, two major American appeals courts are completely divided on that!
Emma: 信不信由你，美国两家主要上诉法院在这个问题上意见完全针锋相对！
James: Wait, divided? Either it's a real financial product or it's just online gambling.
James: 等等，针锋相对？要么是正规金融产品，要么就是普通网络赌博，总得有个定论吧。
Emma: In April, one court ruled sports contracts are legal financial products.
Emma: 今年4月，有一家法院裁定体育合约属于合法的金融产品。
Emma: They treated them like derivatives.
Emma: 他们把这当成衍生品来对待了。
James: Sweet! So my terrible weekend sports wagers make me a sophisticated trader now?
James: 太棒了！那这么说，我周末那些糟糕的球赛下注，现在也能让我成为高级交易员了？
Emma: Not quite! On August 28, another federal appeals court rejected that idea entirely.
Emma: 可没那么简单！8月28日，另一家联邦上诉法院彻底驳回了这种说法。
James: Ouch. What made that second court push back so hard?
James: 哎呀。第二家法院为什么反应这么强烈？
Emma: The judges said betting on a team is an ordinary wager.
Emma: 法官们认为，押注球队输赢依然只是一种普通的下注。
Emma: Calling it a contract doesn't change what it is.
Emma: 换个名字叫合约，并不能改变它的本质。
James: Ha, Shakespeare style! So the state of Nevada can actually enforce its gambling laws?
James: 哈哈，颇有莎士比亚名句的意味！那这么说，内华达州现在真能执行他们的赌博法规了？
Emma: Exactly.
Emma: 没错。
Emma: But platforms like Kalshi argue federal regulators watch them, so state laws cannot touch them.
Emma: 但像 Kalshi 这样的平台坚称自己受联邦监管机构监管，各州的法律管不到它们头上。
James: Wait, Kalshi? How much money are people really putting into these event bets?
James: 等等，Kalshi？大家在这种事件押注里到底投了多少钱啊？
Emma: The stakes are enormous. Kalshi approached 50 billion dollars in yearly trading recently.
Emma: 涉及的金额非常惊人。Kalshi 最近的年交易量已经逼近500亿美元了。
James: Fifty billion? That sounds completely terrifying for everyday savers looking to invest.
James: 500亿？对于只想投资的普通老百姓来说，这听上去未免也太吓人了。
Emma: Regulators think so, too.
Emma: 监管机构也是这么想的。
Emma: In Europe, countries like France and Italy already blocked access to them.
Emma: 在欧洲，像法国和意大利这些国家早就屏蔽了这类平台的访问。
James: Smart move.
James: 明智之举。
James: So European officials are deciding if event bets are just gambling across the Atlantic?
James: 这么说，大西洋彼岸的欧洲官员们也正在定夺这类事件押注到底算不算赌博？
Emma: Yes, and over here, the US Supreme Court must step in to settle the conflict.
Emma: 是的，而在我们这边，美国最高法院必须亲自出面来平息这场纷争了。
James: Man, what a mess.
James: 天哪，真是一团乱麻。
James: Until the judges decide, I'm definitely keeping my money in regular savings!
James: 在法官们最终定夺之前，我还是老老实实把钱存在银行储蓄账户里吧！